Highlights
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in October, pointing to what the report says is slow growth in the first half of next year. Once again the rate spread was the greatest positive in October, at 32 basis points between the fed funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield. The size of the spread reflects the Fed's aggressive policy to hold short rates near zero. Outside of the spread, the remaining components are mixed with unemployment claims and stock prices key positives but with consumer expectations and building permits key and very strong negatives. The coincident index, based on its own set of components, was unchanged pointing to no overall economic growth, at least for October.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators jumped 1.0 percent in September for the sixth gain in a row. Eight of the ten components of the leading index rose in the latest month. The largest contributor in September was the rate spread between the federal funds rate, which is very low, and the 10-year Treasury note. The second biggest contributor was consumer expectations. On the debate about when recovery began, July is still the statistical favorite based on the coincident index. This index, which weighs heavily in the decisions on business cycle peaks and troughs, was unchanged in September. This index first showed an increase in July then in August, both at 0.1 percent gains.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/26 2/19 3/19 4/20 5/21 6/18 7/20 8/20 9/21 10/22 11/19 12/17 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov